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Ọnọdụ mgbanwe ihu igwe

amụma nke gaasi griin haus ga-eme n'ọdịnihu

Ọnọdụ mgbanwe ihu igwe ma ọ bụ ọnọdụ mmekọrịta mmadụ na ibe ya bụ atụmatụ nké ikuku na-ekpo ọkụ (GHG) n'ọdịnihu nke ndị nyocha ji nyochaa nsogbu ọdịnihu na mgbanwe ihu ígwé.[1] Ndị ọkà mmụta sayensị na-emepụta ihe nkiri na ụzọ iji nyochaa ụzọ ọ bụla na-adịte aka ma nyochaa ịdị irè nke ibelata ma nyéré anyị aka ịghọta ihe ọdịnihu nwéré ike ijide nke a ga-eme ka anyị chee ọdịnihu nke usoro gbụrụ-gbúrụ ébé obibi mmadụ.[2][2] Ịmepụta ihe omume chọrọ atụmatụ nke ọkwa ndị mmadụ n'ọdịnihu, ọrụ akụ na ụba, usoro ọchịchị, ụkpụrụ mmekọrịta mmadụ na ibe ya, na usoro mgbanwe teknụzụ. Enwèrè ike iji ihe nlereanya akụ na ụba na ike (dị ka ụdị World3 ma ọ bụ POLES) nyochaa ma chọpụta mmetụta nkè ndị ọkwọ ụgbọala dị otú ahụ.

Mgbasa CO2 zuru ụwa ọnụ na nsonaazụ okpomọkụ nke iwu dị iche iche

Ndị ọkà mmụta sayensị nwèrè ike ịmepụta ọnọdụ mgbanwe ihu igwe dị íchè íchè nke mba ụwa, mpaghara na mba. A na-eme ihe omume ndị a iji nyere ndị nwèrè mmasị áká ịghọta ụdị mkpebi ga-enwe mmetụta bara uru na mbelata mgbanwe ihu igwe ma ọ bụ mgbanwe. Ọtụtụ mba na-eme atụmatụ mgbanwe ma ọ bụ Onyinye Mba ga-enye ọrụ nyocha ihe omume iji ghọtakwuo mkpebi ha nwèrè.

Ihe mgbaru ọsọ mba ụwa màkà ibelata mgbanwe ihu igwe site na usoro mba ụwa dị ka Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Paris Agreement na Sustainable Development Goal 13 ("Were ihe ngwa ngwa iji lụso mgbanwe ihu igwe na mmetụta ya ọgụ") dabere na nyocha nkè ihe omume ndị a. Dịka ọmụmaatụ, a tọhapụrụ Akụkọ Pụrụ Iche na Global Warming nke 1.5 °C n'afọ 2018 iji gosipụta ụdị mmepe nke ikuku, Onyinye Mba, na mmetụta nkè mgbanwe ihu ígwé karịa ónyé bu ya ụzọ IPCC Fifth Assessment Report bipụtara n'afọ 2014 tupu nkwekọrịta Paris.

Ihe omume nke mgbasa ozi

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Ọnọdụ ọdịnihu zuru ụwa ọnụ

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Enwèrè ike íchè echiche banyéré ihe omume ndị a dị ka akụkọ banyéré ọdịnihu nwéré ike ime. Ha na-enye ohere nkọwa nke ihe ndị siri ike ịkọwa, dị ka ọchịchị, usoro mmekọrịta mmadụ na ibe ya, na ụlọ ọrụ. Morita et al. nyochara akwụkwọ gbásárá ọdịnihu ụwa.[3] Ha chọtara ọtụtụ ihe dị íchè íchè n'etiti ihe omume, site na ụdị dị íchè íchè nke mmepe na-adịgide adịgide, na ọdịda nke usoro mmekọrịta mmadụ na ibe ya, akụ na ụba, na gbụrụ-gbúrụ eb ébée obibi. N'ọtụtụ ọmụmụ, a chọtara mmekọrịta ndị a:

  • Rising GHGs: A na-ejikọta nke a na ọnọdụ ndị nwéré akụ na ụba na-eto eto, nke na-esote ụlọ ọrụ mmepụta ihe na ijikọ ụwa ọnụ, nke ka ukwuu na ntinye aka gọọmentị dị ala na ọkwa dị elu nke asọmpi. Ịha nhata ego na-ebelata n'ime mba, mànà enweghị usoro doro anyá na ikpe ziri ezi ma ọ bụ ịha nhata mba ụwa.
  • GHGs na-ada: N'ime ọtụtụ n'ime ọnọdụ ndị a, GDP rịrị elu. Ihe omume ndị ọzọ gosipụtara ọrụ akụ na ụba na-ejedebe na ọkwa na-adịgide adịgide. Ihe omume ndị na-adaba na ikuku nwèrè ọkwa dị elu nke gọọmentị na akụ na ụba. Ihe ka ọtụtụ n'ihe omume gosipụtara mmụba nke ikpe ziri ezi na ịha nhata n'ime na n'etiti mba.

Ihe ndị dị na ya

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A na-eji ihe omume ndabere eme ihe dị ka ihe atụ màkà iji ya tụnyere ihe omume ọzọ, dịka ọmụmaatụ, ihe omume mgbochi.[4] N'ịtụle akwụkwọ akụkọ, Fisher et al., achọpụtara na atụmatụ CO2 na-ekpuchi ọtụtụ ihe. Na United States, ụlọ ọrụ ọkụ eletrik na-ewepụta ihe dị ka ijeri tọn carbon dioxide (CO) 2.4 kwà afọ, ma ọ bụ ihe dịka pasent irí ano nkè ngụkọta ikuku nkè mba ahụ. EPA emeela ihe mbụ dị mkpa site na ịtọ ụkpụrụ nké ga-ebelata mmetọ carbon site na ụgbọala na gwongworo ihe fọrọ nke nta ka ọ bụrụ ọkara site n'afo 2025 na site na ịtụ aro ụkpụrụ iji belata mmetor carbon site na ụlọ ọrụ ike ọhụrụ.[5]

Nkọwapụta nke ọnụọgụ ikuku

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E mepụtara ọtụtụ atụmatụ nkè gas na-ekpo ọkụ. Ihe omume "SRES" bụ ihe omume "baseline" Nké ikuku (ya bụ, ha na-eche na ọ dịghị mgbalị a na-eme n'ọdịnihu iji belata ikuku), a na-ejikarị ya eme ihe na akwụkwọ sayensị (lee Special Report on Emissions Scenarios màkà nkọwa).[6] Greenhouse gas #Projections chịkọtara atụmatụ n'afọ 2030, dịka Rogner et al nyochara. A na-egosi ọmụmụ ihe ndị ọzọ ébé a.

Ihe dị n'etiti nkè mbipụta nkè International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2011 na-atụ aro mmụba na-aga n'ihu na ikuku CO2 metụtara ike zuru ụwa ọnụ, na ikuku ruru 36.4 Gt n'afọ 2035. Nké a bụ mmụba pasenti iri abụọ na ikuku na-esi n'ụgbọ mmiri apụta ma e jiri ya tụnyere ọkwa afọ 2010.[7]

UNEP 2011 akụkọ nchịkọta

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The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP, afọ 2011): 7 lere anya n'otú ikuku ikuku ụwa nwèrè ike isi melite ruo n'afọ 2020 dabere na mkpebi iwu dị iche iche.[8] Iji mepụta akụkọ ha, UNEP (2011): 8 kpọkọtara ndị ọkà mmụta sayensị na ndị ọkachamara irí ise na isé sitere na ìgwè sayensị iri abụo na asatọ gafee mba iri na ise.

Atụmatụ, na-eche na ọ dịghị mgbalị ọhụrụ iji belata ikuku ma ọ bụ dabere na "azụmahịa-dị ka ọ na-adịkarị", tụrụ aro ikuku zuru ụwa ọnụ n'afọ 2020 nke irí ise na isii gigatonnes CO2-equivalent (GtCO2-eq), na ọnụọgụ nke 55-59 GtCO2-e: 12 N'ịnakwere ntọala dị íchè ébé nkwa ndị a na Copenhagen Accord zutere n'ụdị ha kachasị elu, ikuku zuru ụwa niile a na-atụ anya n'afọ 2020 ka ga-eru iri ise gigatonnesCO2.[9][10] Na-aga n'ihu na omume dị ugbu a, ọkachasị n'ihe gbasara ụdị ọchịchọ dị ala, a na-atụ anya mmụba nke okpomọkụ Celsius atọ na njedebe nke narị afọ, nke a na-eme atụmatụ na ọ ga-eweta nnukwu gbụrụ-gbúrụ ébé obibi, akụ na ụba, na mmekọrịta mmadụ na ibe ya.[11] Dịka ọmụmaatụ, okpomọkụ ikuku na-ekpo ọkụ na evapotranspiration na-esi na ya apụta nwéré ike iduga na égbè eluigwe ka ukwuu na ihe ize ndụ ka ukwuu site na idei mmiri.[12]

Ọnọdụ ihu igwe nke mba (mgbanwe)

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Ntụle ihu ígwé nkè mba (mgbanwe) (nkè a na-akpọkwa "ihe omume ihu ígwé nke obodo" ma ọ bụ "nnyocha ihu igwe nke afọ") bụ atụmatụ ihu ígwé pụrụ íchè nke mpaghara, nke mba dị íchè iche na-emepụta. Ihe na-eme ka ọdịiche dị n'etiti atụmatụ ihu igwe nke mba na atụmatụ ihu igwe ndị ọzọ bụ na gọọmentị mba ahụ bịanyere áká na ha, si otú a bụrụ ihe ndabere dị mkpa màkà atụmatụ mgbanwe. A na-emepụta atụmatụ ihu igwe n'ime ọtụtụ afọ site na ọrụ ihu igwe nke mba ma ọ bụ ụlọ ọrụ agụmakwụkwọ na-arụ ọrụ na mgbanwe ihu igwe.

Ebumnuche

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Atụmatụ ihu ígwé nke mba na-egosi mgbanwe ndị kwere omume na ihu igwe mba n'ọdịnihu. Site n'iji ọtụtụ ihe omume ikuku, atụmatụ ndị a na-eme ka mmetụta dị íchè íchè nkè mgbalị ndị na-ebelata ụwa dị íchè íchè nwèrè na mgbanwe, gụnyere okpomọkụ, mmiri ozuzo, na awa anwụ na-achasi ike. Ndị ọkà mmụta sayensị na-ahụ màkà ihu igwe na-atụ aro iji ọtụtụ ihe omume ikuku iji hụ na mkpebi siri ike na mgbanwe ihu igwe dị íchè íchè. Atụmatụ ihu ígwé nke mba bụ ihe ndabere nke mgbanwe ihu igwe nke obodo na atụmatụ ihu ígwé, nke a na-agwa UNFCCC ma jiri ya mee ihe na nyocha IPCC.

Nhazi

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Iji nyochaa ọtụtụ nsonaazụ ihu ígwé na iji mee ka obi sie ya ike na atụmatụ ahụ, a na-emepụta atụmatụ mgbanwe ihu ígwé nke mba site na ọtụtụ ụdị mgbasa ozi (GCMs). Ụdị ọnọdụ ihu igwe dị otú ahụ nwèrè ike iwere ụdị nke perturbed physics ensembles (PPE), multi-model ensembles, ma ọ bụ mmalite ọnọdụ ensembles.[13] Dị ka mkpebi mpaghara nke GCMs ndị dị n'okpuru na-adịkarị njọ, a na-emekarị atụmatụ ahụ, ma ọ bụ site na iji ụdị ihu igwe mpaghara (RCMs), ma ọ bụ ọnụ ọgụgụ. Atụmatụ ụfọdụ na-agụnye data sitere na mpaghara ndị búrú ibu karịa ókèala mba, dịka ọmụmaatụ iji nyochaa mpaghara mmiri nké osimiri ndị na-agafe ókèala. Mba ụfọdụ emeela atụmatụ ndị ọzọ màkà obere mpaghara nchịkwa, dịka. Steeti dị na United States, na Länder dị na Germany.

Ihe Nlereanya

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Ihe karịrị mba iri atọ akọwo atụmatụ / ihe omume ihu ígwé nke mba na National Communications na United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Ọtụtụ gọọmentị Europe enyekwara ego màkà ọnụ ụzọ ozi mba gbásárá mgbanwe ihu igwe.[14]

Ngwa

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A na-eji atụmatụ ihu ígwé e nke mba eme ihe n'ọtụtụ ébé iji buo amụma mmetụta mgbanwe ihu igwe n'ọtụtụ ngalaba akụ na ụba, ya na iji mee ka ọmụmụ na mkpebi mgbanwe mgbanwe ihu igwe màrà. Ihe atụ ụfọdụ gụnyere:

  • Ike[22]
  • Mmiri[23]
  • Ọrụ ugbo na ọhịa: mmetụta nke mgbanwe ihu igwe na ọrụ ugbo[24][25]
  • Ịkụ azụ
  • Ecosystems na Biodiversity: mmetụta nke mgbanwe ihu igwe n'oké osimiri, mmetụta nke mgbanwe ọnọdụ ihu ígwé n"ụmụ anụmanụ, mmetụta nke ịgbanwe ihu ígwé na ụdị dị iche iche nke osisi[26]
  • Ahụike: mmetụta nke mgbanwe ihu igwe na ahụike mmadụ[27]
  • Njem[28]
  • Ebe ndị dị n'ụsọ oké osimiri[29]
  • Njem
  • Inshọransị[30]
  • Ihe owuwu[31]
  • Obodo ukwu na obodo ukwu[32]
  • Ihe ize ndụ nke ọdachi[33]
  • Mbufe ụmụ mmadụ (n'ọtụtụ mba na ihe metụtara njikwa ókèala mba, iwu mbufe na mgbanwe ihu igwe)[34]

Ihe omume ndị na-ebelata

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Ihe omume nke ikuku na-ekpo ọkụ n'ụwa niile. Ọ bụrụ na mba niile emezu nkwa nkwekọrịta Paris ha dị ugbu a, nkezi okpomọkụ site na 2100 ga-agafe ihe mgbaru ọsọ nke nkwekọrịta París iji nọgide na-ekpo ọkụ "nke dị n'okpuru 2 °C".

Ọnọdụ mbelata mgbanwe ihu igwe nwere ike ime n'ọdịnihu ébé a na-ebelata okpomọkụ ụwa site na omume a kpachapụrụ ányá, dị ka mgbanwe zuru oke na isi mmalite ike ndị ọzọ na-abụghị mmanụ ala. Ndị a bụ omume ndị na-ebelata ikuku ikuku nke méré na ikuku na-ekpo ọkụ na-akwụsi ike na ọkwa ndị na-egbochi mmetụta ọjọọ nke mgbanwe ihu igwe. N'iji ihe omume ndị a, nyocha nke mmetụta nke ọnụahịa carbon dị íchè íchè na akụ na ụba na-eme ka ọ dị n'ime usoro nke ọkwa dị íchè íchè nke ọchịchọ ụwa.[35]

Gas ndị ọzọ na-eme ka okpomọkụ

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A na-agbakọta gas na-ekpo ọkụ n'ihe gbásárá carbon dioxide. Meinshausen et al emeela ọtụtụ ihe omume mgbochi gas.[36]

Dị ka ihe a na-elekwasị anya n'oge na-adịghị anya

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N'akwụkwọ afọ 2000, Hansen kwùrù na ịrị elu 0.75 °C [nnyocha na-emezughị] na nkezi okpomọkụ ụwa n'ime afọ otu narị gara-aga bụ nke gas na-ekpo ọkụ na-abụghị carbon dioxide, ébé ọ bụ na okpomọkụ nke CO2 ejirila ịjụ oyi n'ihi aerosols, na-egosi na usoro nke dabeere na mbụ na ibelata ikuku nke gas na carbon ojii, na-elekwasị ányà na CO2 naanị n'oge dị ogologo.[37]

Veerabhadran Ramanathan na Jessica Seddon Wallack kwukwara nke a ọnwa Septemba/Ọktoba nafo 2009 Foreign Affairs.[38]

Hụkwa

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  • Degrees 4 na Beyond International Climate Conference
  • Bio-energy na carbon capture na nchekwa (BECCS)
  • Ihichapụ carbon dioxide (CDR)
  • Carbon na-adịghị mma mmanụ
  • Injinia ihu igwe (geoengineering)
  • Azụmaahịa ikuku
  • Nkọwa ike
  • Ihe ịma aka nke ụwa na-amaghị nwoke
  • Ọnọdụ ihu igwe
  • CMIP
  • Ihe Omume Copernicus
  • Nkwupụta ọnụ
  • Nnyocha mmetụta
  • Nnyocha ejighị n'aka
  • Atụmatụ ihe nkiri

Edensibia

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  1. ↑ Carter, T.R. (2001). Developing and Applying Scenarios. In: Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [J.J. McCarthy et al. Eds.]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. Archived from the original on 2018-10-05. Retrieved on 2010-01-10.
  2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 IPCC AR6 WG3 Ch3. Archived from the original on 2022-12-04. Retrieved on 2023-04-20.
  3. ↑ Morita, T. (2001). Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation Scenarios and Implications. In: Climate Change 2001: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [B. Metz et al. Eds.]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. Archived from the original on 2018-10-05. Retrieved on 2010-01-10.
  4. ↑ IPCC (2007c). Annex. In: Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [B. Metz et al. Eds.]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. Archived from the original on 2018-10-05. Retrieved on 2009-05-20.
  5. ↑ Using the Clean Air Act to Sharply Reduce Carbon Pollution from Existing Power Plants. Natural Resources Defense Counsel. Retrieved on October 9, 2013.
  6. ↑ , pp. etal {{citation}}: Missing or empty |title= (help)
  7. ↑ Kpọpụta njehie: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named weo 2011 emission projections
  8. ↑ Kpọpụta njehie: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named Bridging the Emissions Gap
  9. ↑ Fozzard (2014). Climate Change Public Expenditure and Institutional Review Sourcebook (CCPEIR). Washington, D.C.: World Bank Publications, 92. 
  10. ↑ Alam (2013). Routledge Handbook of International Environmental Law. London: Routledge, 373. ISBN 9780415687171. 
  11. ↑ Govaere (2014). EU Management of Global Emergencies: Legal Framework for Combating Threats and Crises. Leiden: BRILL Nijhoff, 313. ISBN 9789004268326. 
  12. ↑ van Drunen (2006). Climate Change in Developing Countries: Results from the Netherlands Climate Change Studies Assistance Programme. Cambridge, MA: CAB International, 52. ISBN 9781845930776. 
  13. ↑ Parker (2012). "Whose Probabilities? Predicting Climate Change with Ensembles of Models" (in en). Philosophy of Science 77 (5): 985–997. DOI:10.1086/656815. ISSN 0031-8248. 
  14. ↑ Füssel (2014). How Is Uncertainty Addressed in the Knowledge Base for National Adaptation Planning?. In Adapting to an Uncertain Climate. pp. 41-66: Springer, Cham. ISBN 978-3-319-04875-8. 
  15. ↑ Climate Change in Australia
  16. ↑ California climate change scenarios and climate impact research
  17. ↑ KNMI'14 Pictures of the future - Climate scenarios
  18. ↑ Swiss Climate Change Scenarios CH2011 B. ch2011.ch. Retrieved on 2018-08-23.
  19. ↑ CH2018 - New Climate Scenarios for Switzerland. Archived from the original on 2018-06-28. Retrieved on 2023-04-20.
  20. ↑ UKCP18 Project announcement
  21. ↑ UKCP18 Demonstration Projects (Met Office)
  22. ↑ European Climatic Energy Mixes (ECEM)
  23. ↑ California's Climate Adaptation Strategy for Water
  24. ↑ Climate-ADAPT EU sector policies - Agriculture. Archived from the original on 2022-08-27. Retrieved on 2023-04-20.
  25. ↑ Switzerland: Climate change impacts on tree species, forest properties, and ecosystem services
  26. ↑ BACC – The Baltex Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea basin
  27. ↑ Health effects of climate change in the UK 2012. Archived from the original on 2013-11-04. Retrieved on 2021-03-14.
  28. ↑ UK's Climate change national adaptation programme: transport
  29. ↑ The Netherland's Delta Programme 2018 - Continuing the work on a sustainable and safe delta. Archived from the original on 2018-11-05. Retrieved on 2021-03-14.
  30. ↑ SwissRe: The Economics of Climate Adaptation. Archived from the original on 2018-11-06. Retrieved on 2021-03-14.
  31. ↑ Infrastructure, Engineering and Climate Change Adaptation – ensuring services in an uncertain future
  32. ↑ Australia's National Climate Resilience and Adaptation Strategy
  33. ↑ UNISDR -Coherence and mutual reinforcement between the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 and international agreements for development and climate action
  34. ↑ Future of the human climate niche. Archived from the original on 14 May 2020. Retrieved on 25 June 2020.
  35. ↑ Commonwealth of Australia, “Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios: Modeling report provided to the Climate Change Authority in support of its Caps and Targets Review,” 2013. Retrieved 13 December 2018 from https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/a28424ae-cce9-48c9-aad2-56b3db0920a5/files/climate-change-mitigation-scenarios.pdf
  36. ↑ Meinshausen (2006). "Multi-gas Emissions Pathways to Meet Climate Targets". Climatic Change 75 (1–2). DOI:10.1007/s10584-005-9013-2. 
  37. ↑ Hansen (29 August 2000). "Global warming in the twenty-first century: An alternative scenario". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 97 (18): 9875–9880. DOI:10.1073/pnas.170278997. PMID 10944197. 
  38. ↑ Why Black Carbon and Ozone Also Matter
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