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Ụzọ mmekọrịta akụ na ụba nkekọrịta

Ụzọ mmekọrịta akụ na ụba nkekọrịta
obere ụdị nkeỌnọdụ mgbanwe ihu igwe Dezie

Ụzọ mmekọrịta mmekọrịta ọha na eze na-ekekọrịta (SSPs) bụ ihe atụ nke mgbanwe mgbanwe mmekọrịta ọha na eze zuru ụwa ọnụ ruo 2100. A na-eji ha wepụta ọnọdụ ikuku ikuku griin haus nwere amụma ihu igwe dị iche iche.

Ọnọdụ ikuku CO₂ nke SSP gafere na narị afọ nke 21 (nke MAGICC6 mere ya, ụdị ihu igwe dị mfe/belata mgbagwoju anya). Ebe ntụpọ ọ bụla nwere ntụpọ na-anọchi anya nkezi ụkpụrụ simulated sitere na ụdị ihu igwe 6 (AIM/CGE, GCAM4, IMAGE, MESSAGE-GLOBIOM, REMIND-MAGPIE, & WITCH-GLOBIOM). [1]
Atụmatụ nke methane emission [2]

Ihe atụ ndị a bụ:

  • SSP1: Njigide (na-ewere okporo ụzọ Green)
  • SSP2: Middle of the Road
  • SSP3: Esemokwu mpaghara (Okporo ụzọ Rocky)
  • SSP4: ahaghị nhata (E kewara ụzọ)
  • SSP5: Mmepe nwere mmanụ ọkụ (na-ewere ụzọ awara awara)

Ejila ha nyere aka wepụta akụkọ nyocha IPCC nke isii gbasara mgbanwe ihu igwe, nke ebipụtara na 9 Ọgọst 2021

Ndị SSP na-enye akụkọ na-akọwa mmepe obodo na akụ na ụba ọzọ. Akụkọ akụkọ ndị a bụ nkọwa qualitative nke mgbagha metụtara akụkụ nke akụkọ ahụ na ibe ya. N'ihe gbasara ọnụọgụ ọnụọgụgụ, ha na-enye data ga-eso ọnọdụ ahụ gbasara ọnụọgụ obodo, ime obodo na GDP (otu onye isi). Enwere ike ijikọ ndị SSP na ụdị Ntụle Integrated Assessment (IAM) dị iche iche, iji chọpụta ụzọ enwere ike ime n'ọdịnihu ma n'ihe gbasara ụzọ akụ na ụba na ihu igwe.[3]

SSP1: Njigide (na-ewere okporo ụzọ Agba akwụkwọ ndụ )

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Ụwa na-eji nwayọọ nwayọọ na-agbanwe, ma n'ebe nile, gaa n'ụzọ na-adigide karị, na-emesi ike mmepe na-agụnyewanye nke na-akwanyere oke gburugburu ebe obibi anya. Ijikwa ọnụ ọgụgụ mba ụwa ji nwayọọ nwayọọ na-akawanye mma, itinye ego mmụta na ahụike na-eme ka mgbanwe ọnọdụ igwe mmadụ dịkwuo elu, na ntinye aka na uto akụ na ụba na-aga n'ihu na-elekwasị anya na ọdịmma mmadụ. N'ịkwalite site na ntinye aka na-abawanye ụba iji nweta ebumnuche mmepe, ahaghị nhata na-ebelata ma n'ofe ma n'ime mba. Nri na-adabere na uto ihe onwunwe dị ala yana obere akụrụngwa na ike ike.

SSP2: Etiti okporo ụzọ

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Ụwa na-eso ụzọ nke usoro mmekọrịta ọha na eze, akụ na ụba, na nkà na ụzụ na-adịghị agbanwe nke ọma site n'ụdị akụkọ ihe mere eme. Mmepe na mmụba ego na-aga n'ihu n'ụzọ na-ezighi ezi, ebe ụfọdụ mba na-enwe ọganihu dịtụ mma ebe ndị ọzọ na-adaghị atụmanya. Ụlọ ọrụ zuru ụwa ọnụ na nke mba na-arụ ọrụ ma na-enwe ọganihu ngwa ngwa n'inweta ebumnuche mmepe na-adigide. Sistemu gburugburu ebe obibi na-enweta mbelata, n'agbanyeghị na enwere mmelite ụfọdụ yana n'ozuzu ike nke akụrụngwa na iji ike na-agbada. Mmụba ndị mmadụ n'ụwa niile dị obere ma gbagoro na ọkara nke abụọ nke narị afọ. Enweghị ahaghị nhata ego na-aga n'ihu ma ọ bụ na-akawanye nwayọ nwayọ yana ihe ịma aka iji belata adịghị ike na mgbanwe ọha na eze na gburugburu ebe obibi ka dị.

SSP3: Esemokwu mpaghara (okporo ụzọ nkume)

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Ịhụ mba n'anya na-eweghachite, nchegbu gbasara asọmpi na nchekwa, na esemokwu mpaghara na-akpali mba ka ha na-elekwasịwanye anya n'ụlọ ma ọ bụ, na kacha, ihe gbasara mpaghara. Atumatu na-aga n'ihu ka oge na-aga iji gbado anya n'ihe gbasara nchekwa obodo na mpaghara. Mba dị iche iche na-elekwasị anya n'inweta ebumnobi ike na nchekwa nri n'ime mpaghara nke ha na-akwụ ụgwọ maka mmepe gbadoro ụkwụ. Ntinye ego na agụmakwụkwọ na mmepe teknụzụ dara ada. Mmepe akụ na ụba na-adị ngwa ngwa, oriri na-achọsi ike ihe onwunwe, na ahaghị nhata na-adịgide ma ọ bụ na-akawanye njọ ka oge na-aga. Mmụba ọnụ ọgụgụ mmadụ dị obere na mepere emepe yana nnukwu na mba ndị ka na-emepe emepe. Mkpa dị ala nke mba ụwa maka ilebara nsogbu gburugburu ebe obibi na-eduga na mmebi gburugburu ebe obibi siri ike na mpaghara ụfọdụ. [4] [5]

SSP4: Enweghị ahaghị nhata (Ekewara ụzọ)

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Ntinye ego na-enweghị oke n'isi obodo mmadụ, yana ọnụ ọgụgụ na-abawanye ụba na ohere akụ na ụba na ikike ndọrọ ndọrọ ọchịchị, na-eduga n'ịba ụba nha nha na nha anya ma n'ofe na n'ime mba. Ka oge na-aga, ọdịiche na-agbasawanye n'etiti ọha mmadụ jikọtara mba ụwa nke na-enye aka na ihe ọmụma- na nnukwu ego nke akụ na ụba ụwa, na nchịkọta nke ndị na-akpata obere ego, ndị gụrụ akwụkwọ na-agụghị akwụkwọ na-arụ ọrụ na-arụ ọrụ na-arụsi ọrụ ike, na-arụ ọrụ nke ọma. . Mmekọrịta ọha na eze na-emebi emebi na esemokwu na ọgbaghara na-aghọwanye ihe a na-ahụkarị. Mmepe teknụzụ dị elu na akụ na ụba teknụzụ dị elu na ngalaba. Ngalaba ike ejikọtara ọnụ n'ụwa niile na-agbasawanye, yana itinye ego na mmanụ ọkụ na-akpa ike carbon dị ka coal na mmanụ na-adịghị ahụkebe, kamakwa isi mmalite ike carbon dị ala. Atumatu gburugburu ebe obibi na-elekwasị anya n'okwu gbasara mpaghara gburugburu ebe etiti na nnukwu ego. [4] [6]

SSP5: Mmepe nwere mmanụ ọkụ (ịga n'okporo ụzọ awara awara)

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Ụwa a na-etinye okwukwe na-arịwanye elu na ahịa asọmpi, mmepụta ihe ọhụrụ na ọha mmadụ na-ekere òkè iji mepụta ọganihu nkà na ụzụ ngwa ngwa na mmepe nke isi obodo mmadụ dị ka ụzọ maka mmepe na-adịgide adịgide. A na-ejikọta ahịa ahịa zuru ụwa ọnụ. Enwekwara itinye ego siri ike na ahụike, agụmakwụkwọ, na ụlọ ọrụ iji kwalite ego mmadụ na ọha mmadụ. N'otu oge ahụ, mkpali maka mmepe akụ na ụba na mmekọrịta ọha na eze jikọtara ya na nrigbu nke nnukwu mmanụ ọkụ na nnabata nke akụrụngwa na ume ike ndụ gburugburu ụwa. Ihe ndị a niile na-ebute uto ngwa ngwa nke akụ na ụba ụwa, ebe ọnụ ọgụgụ ndị bi n'ụwa na-arị elu ma na-agbada na narị afọ nke 21st. A na-edozi nsogbu gburugburu ebe obibi dị ka mmetọ ikuku nke ọma. Enwere okwukwe na ikike ijikwa usoro mmekọrịta ọha na eze na gburugburu ebe obibi nke ọma, gụnyere site na geo-engineering ma ọ bụrụ na ọ dị mkpa. [4] [7]

Atụmatụ ndapụta atụpụtara

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Mmemme ọmụmụ 2020 nke mpaghara ndị otu ụzọ n'ụzọ atọ nke ndị mmadụ bi nwere ike ịdị ọkụ dị ka akụkụ kacha ekpo ọkụ na Sahara n'ime afọ 50 na-enweghị mgbanwe n'ụdị mmụba nke ọnụ ọgụgụ mmadụ na enweghị mba ọzọ, ọ gwụla ma ebelatara ikuku ikuku ikuku . [8] Nkezi okpomọkụ a na-atụ anya ka ọ dị elu karịa 29 Celsius C maka mpaghara ndị a, na-eche na ọnọdụ RCP8.5 maka ihu igwe na mmụba ọnụ ọgụgụ mmadụ dị ka SSP3, ga-anọ na mpụga "niche okpomọkụ mmadụ". A na-ewere oke a tụrụ aro maka ihu igwe dị ka ihe dị mma maka ụmụ mmadụ dabere na data akụkọ ihe mere eme nke okpomọkụ kwa afọ (MAT) nke ndị mmadụ nwere njupụta dị iche iche kwa MAT kemgbe ~ 6,000 n'ụwa niile. Ọtụtụ n'ime mpaghara emetụtara nwere obere ikike ime mgbanwe dịka nke 2020. [9] [10] [11] Matriks na-esonụ na-egosi amụma ha maka ọnụ ọgụgụ ndị na-abụghị "niche okpomọkụ mmadụ" - nke ya mere nwere ike ịchọ ịkwaga na mpaghara ha - na ọnọdụ mgbanwe ihu igwe dị iche iche na amụma nke oge a nke mmụba ndị mmadụ maka 2070: [12] : 21 

Ọnọdụ igwe mmadụ (SSPs) Mmụba ọnụ ọgụgụ ụwa (ijeri) Onu ogugu uwa (ijeri) Ọnọdụ ihu igwe
RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5
pụtara mmụba okpomọkụ zuru ụwa ọnụ nke ~ 1.5 Celsius C - pụtara mmụba okpomọkụ zuru ụwa ọnụ nke ~ 3.2 Celsius C
N'èzí "niche ihu igwe mmadụ" (bn) N'èzí "niche ihu igwe mmadụ" (bn) N'èzí "niche ihu igwe mmadụ" (bn)
Uto efu 0.00 7.26 1.06 ± 0,30 1.62 ± 0,42 2.37 ± 0,43
SSP1 0.98 8.24 1.20 ± 0,34 1.84 ± 0,48 2.69 ± 0,49
SSP2 2.20 9.46 1.38 ± 0,39 2.12 ± 0,55 3.09 ± 0,56
SSP3 3.88 11.14 1.63 ± 0,46 2.49 ± 0,65 3.64 ± 0,66
SSP4 2.20 9.46 1.38 ± 0,39 2.12 ± 0,55 3.09 ± 0,56
SSP5 1.21 8.47 1.24 ± 0,35 1.89 ± 0,49 2.76 ± 0,50

Akuko nyocha nke isii IPCC

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Akụkọ nyocha nke isii IPCC webatara ụdị ọhụrụ [13] sitere na ikuku carbon dioxide họọrọ. Ụzọ ụzọ akụ na ụba nke mmekọrịta ọha na eze x jikọtara ya na radiative mmanye a na-atụ anya ya n'afọ 2100 gaa na ID SSPx-yz dị ka e depụtara n'okpuru.

Akụkọ nke isii IPCC akọwapụtaghị ohere dị na ọnọdụ ndị a: SPM-12  mana nyocha 2020 mere atụmatụ SSP5-8.5 dị ka ihe na-agaghị ekwe omume, SSP3-7.0 dị ka ihe na-agaghị ekwe omume, yana SSP2-4.5 dịka o yikarịrị.Templeeti:AR6 SSP table

Hụkwa

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  • Nlereanya Intercomparison Model jikọtara ọnụ
  • Ụzọ ntinye uche na nnọchite anya

Ntụaka

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  1. ↑ SSP Database (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) - Version 2.0 https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb/
  2. ↑ Saunois (15 July 2020). "The Global Methane Budget 2000–2017" (in English). Earth System Science Data 12 (3): 1561–1623. DOI:10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020. ISSN 1866-3508. Retrieved on 28 August 2020. 
  3. ↑ SSP Database. tntcat.iiasa.ac.at. Retrieved on 2019-11-09.
  4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 4.2 Riahi (2017-01-01). "The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview". Global Environmental Change 42: 153–168. DOI:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009. ISSN 0959-3780. 
  5. ↑ Fujimori (2017-01-01). "SSP3: AIM implementation of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways". Global Environmental Change 42: 268–283. DOI:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.009. ISSN 0959-3780. 
  6. ↑ Calvin (2017-01-01). "The SSP4: A world of deepening inequality". Global Environmental Change 42: 284–296. DOI:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.010. ISSN 0959-3780. 
  7. ↑ Kriegler (2017-01-01). "Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century". Global Environmental Change 42: 297–315. DOI:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.015. ISSN 0959-3780. 
  8. ↑ Xu (2020-05-26). "Future of the human climate niche – Supplementary Materials" (in en). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117 (21): 11350–11355. DOI:10.1073/pnas.1910114117. ISSN 0027-8424. PMID 32366654. 
  9. ↑ "Climate change: More than 3bn could live in extreme heat by 2070", BBC News, 5 May 2020. Retrieved on 6 May 2020.
  10. ↑ "'Near-unlivable' heat for one-third of humans within 50 years if greenhouse gas emissions are not cut", University of Exeter, 4 May 2020. Retrieved on 6 May 2020.
  11. ↑ "Billions projected to suffer nearly unlivable heat in 2070", Phys.org, 4 May 2020. Retrieved on 6 May 2020.
  12. ↑ Xu (2020-05-04). "Supplementary Materials – Future of the human climate niche". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117 (21). ISSN 0027-8424. Retrieved on 2020-06-25. 
  13. ↑ Januta (2021-08-09). Explainer: The U.N. climate report's five futures - decoded. Reuters. Retrieved on 2020-08-24.
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